Metaculus - EA Forum
Metaculus is a reputation-based site for soliciting and aggregating predictions. It was founded in November 2015 by astrophysicist Anthony Aguirre, cosmologist Greg Laughlin and data …
Metaculus Q4 AI Benchmarking: Bots Are Closing The
2025年2月19日 · Discussion We believe the Metaculus AI Benchmarking Series holds a unique position among AI Benchmarks that aim to assess real-world AI capabilities. Our benchmark: …
Exploring Metaculus’ community predictions — EA Forum
2023年3月24日 · So, overall, Metaculus’ community predictions perform roughly as well as Metaculus’ predictions, although there can be important differences between them within …
The State of Metaculus — EA Forum
The Metaculus of early 2025 is a different and better place in myriad ways than the Metaculus of a year ago. It can be easy to miss some of these changes and also some of the opportunities — …
Exploring Metaculus’s AI Track Record — EA Forum
2023年5月1日 · This post was authored by Metaculus’s Peter Mühlbacher (Research Scientist), Peter Scoblic (Director of Nuclear Risk) and Will Aldred (AI Forecasting Research Analyst). …
Can AI Outpredict Humans? Results From Metaculus's Q3 AI …
2024年10月10日 · Metaculus's Q3 AI Benchmarking Series aimed to assess how the best bots compare to the best humans on real-world forecasting questions, like those found on …
Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and …
2021年5月27日 · Metaculus Analysis For the Metaculus data I could glean less information, as there were fewer questions, and no user level data available. From the information available, I …
Metaculus’ predictions are much better than low-information
2023年4月11日 · Metaculus’ community predictions is better and much better (0.226 and 0.160) than that of predicting 50 % for every question. Metaculus’ predictions is much better (0.182 …
Metaculus Introduces Better Question Discovery — EA Forum
2024年3月1日 · Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a co…
Metaculus Launches Future of AI Series, Based on Research …
2024年3月13日 · The Future of AI series builds on a set of key AI questions identified by Arb Research to provide more accurate models of future AI progress. …